PAKISTAN: AGRICULTURAL LOSS
Dawn Editorial
THE current wave of floods has ravaged vast tracts of farmland across the plains of central Punjab
Hundreds of thousands of mostly smallholders have been displaced, with floodwaters sweeping away their food and other crops.
More agricultural land will be swallowed by the raging waters, surging southwards to converge with the Indus in the coming days. A major economic upheaval is already emerging, along with a humanitarian crisis. Though it is still too early for a full assessment of the damage wreaked on crops and livestock, initial reports suggest that farmers’ losses are already running into billions.
The deluge has wiped out standing rice, maize and other crops besides vegetables in more than 2,100 villages located along the Sutlej, Ravi and Chenab. The rushing waters are now expected to inflict further damage on croplands in Punjab’s cotton-producing southern districts before cascading into Sindh.
The agricultural losses will weigh heavily on both the economy and people. The destruction of crops and disruption of food supply chains have set the stage for spiralling food inflation. The 2022 floods offer a sobering reminder: food prices surged month after month. But the impact of flooding goes beyond food inflation.
For many of the affected farmers — mostly smallholders — the devastation is total: with crops, livestock, homes and livelihoods all swept away. Left with nothing to live on — let alone invest in the next crop — more people are likely to slip below the poverty line. The increase in the prices of essential foods will disproportionately affect low-income rural and urban households. Beyond the immediate impact, the economic costs are staggering. The agriculture losses will be felt across industries, and reduce automobile and fertiliser sales.
More worrying is the impact on the fragile balance-of-payments situation, with the deluge likely to push up the import bill due to domestic shortages of food items. Exports, on the other hand, may suffer due to production losses in rice and cotton.
Overall, the damage to farm output will keep GDP growth depressed. The farm sector, which forms nearly a quarter of the economy and employs almost 40pc of the labour force, had grown marginally by 0.56pc — the lowest in a decade — last year against a five-year average of 3.38pc. Pakistan has suffered nearly 20 major flood disasters since 1950 — half of them in the last two decades.
Climate change is intensifying their frequency and severity, yet national preparedness remains inadequate. The lesson from the current disaster is clear: floods are no longer freak incidents but recurring economic shocks that depress GDP growth, widen deficits, wash away livelihoods and drag millions deeper into poverty.
Unless we radically overhaul our disaster preparedness and invest in agricultural resilience, each new flood event will drown villages, devastate livelihoods and reduce growth.